Sunday, September 11, 2011

Macro Conundrums

There are several macro conundrums that overhang the global economy.

1.) Are Republicans & Tea Party members of congress so committed to their beliefs that they'd be willing to accept a U.S. recession / depression over their beliefs against increasing deficit spending or raising taxes on the rich?

2.) Does the EuroZone have the leadership, infrastructure and mechanisms to handle an over-leveraged, default-prone country? Secondarily, if Europe falls into a recession, will it spread to the U.S.?

3.) Is China in a construction bubble (very, very likely), and what are the global ramifications if it collapses or even slows down (commodity prices, manufacturing equipment, jobs in resource rich emerging economies, etc.)?

I don't have a clean answer for any of these questions, but I think any of them could lead to an economic blow up. As of Friday, my net exposure remained at nearly 10%.

No comments:

Post a Comment