Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Santa Rally Follow Up

The market was up 4% today.

Below is a link to an article explaining why (China lower rates, coordination with multiple central banks lowering the rate on funds that are borrowed during emergencies).

Forbes Article

I thought about covering my 13% S&P short at the open, but decided to hold on for a few reasons: 1.) this seems like an act of desperation (they're lowering the emergency overnight rate, because they don't have any other policy options left) and 2.) the structural problems in Europe are unaddressed.

My friend Steve described it as laying foam on the run-way ahead of a plane crash. I like the analogy.

In the mean time, I'm trying to live the value life style: Look at stocks that I think have deeply compelling business models that will prosper for the next 20-30 years and make a list waiting for them to come down to attractive prices.

There's a reason that so many value investors live and work to past their 70's. It's because the lifestyle is much easier. It's not as stressful. You sit on your ass and enjoy the day reading about great businesses. All the while you wait for good opportunities. If there's no good opportunities today, go home earlier and read about something fun. At most, maybe you get a couple of opportunities a year.

What a great model.

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